Roger Martin Fagg
Leading Behavioural Economist and an expert in dissecting today’s economic headlines and clarifying their consequences.
Innovate or die!
We will look at invention, innovation and the drivers of per capita income growth. The ageing population will require higher productivity from a shrinking workforce; we will look at the data. We will conclude with a look at current economic conditions and short-term forecasts of all the main economic indicators.
The growth of per capita incomes depends on productivity, which in turn depends on innovation. The population of the World enjoyed no improvement in its standard of living until the invention of the printing press around 1475, which led to a small improvement, but it was the agricultural revolution which enabled rising incomes, followed by the industrial revolution and, in the last 20 years, the internet revolution.
The next phase of innovation is designer drugs based on DNA profiling, the internet of things, and, most importantly, automation.
The ageing population requires much higher productivity from a smaller workforce to enable added value to grow, part of which can be taxed to pay pensions. We will examine Germany, France and Italy. We’ll also discuss how labour shortages will drive greater levels of productivity, enhancing capital investment.
Finally, we’ll assess the economic outlook for Europe in the context of the global economy using the key indicators: the PMI index, money supply, exchange rates, inflation rates and interest rates.
Thursday, 14 September 2017, 08:30 - 10:15